UK cancer prevalence could rise 58% by 2045, Macmillan and Scottish Widows report

25 February 2026

Macmillan Cancer Support and Scottish Widows have worked together on a groundbreaking initiative projecting how cancer prevalence in the UK is expected to change between 2025 and 2045.

Drawing on Scottish Widows’ actuarial expertise and informed by Macmillan’s extensive insight and experience supporting people living with cancer, the report reveals how many people may be living with cancer in the decades to come, with a projected 58% increase in cancer prevalence across the UK in the next 20 years¹.

This means that in 2045, a projected 5.4 million people will be living with cancer, compared to 3.4 million people today².

Preparing for a growing cancer challenge

At a time when cancer is touching more people’s lives than ever before, these insights are designed to help health services, governments and charities understand what people living with cancer will need in the future, and how best to support them.

A shared commitment to better care and financial resilience

The publication of this report reflects the unwavering commitment from Macmillan to spark a revolution in cancer care in the years to come, and an encouragement from Scottish Widows for individuals to financially prepare for potential future health challenges.

As well as providing insight into how cancer may impact people in the coming years, it also provides insight that workplaces can use to support workforces where staff have increased experiences of cancer, both directly and within families and communities.

Expert insight: Macmillan Cancer Support

Professor Richard Simcock, Chief Medical Officer, Macmillan Cancer Support, said: “This new report, and the projections underpinning it, provide an invaluable resource for healthcare systems, policymakers and cancer charities to think about how we can best support living with cancer in the decades to come.

“This report comes at a pivotal moment for cancer care in the UK. We are proud to have been involved in the development of the new National Cancer Plan for England, joining Scotland and Northern Ireland in bold ambitions to revolutionise care and treatment. Cancer is experienced in homes, workplaces and communities, not just in hospitals, and support must meet people where they are. By understanding the scale and impact of cancer today and in the years ahead, we can advocate for the system‑wide change needed to ensure everyone gets the support they deserve.

“Through our services, from our Support Line to our work with all four governments in the UK, we remain committed to ensuring that every person living with cancer in the UK, now and tomorrow, receives the best support available.”

Financial preparation for the future

Rose St Louis, Protection Director at Scottish Widows, said: : “Every person’s experience of cancer is unique, but I believe there’s one thing we can make universal: removing money worries from an already an overwhelming time. That starts with planning early and being willing to have those uncomfortable conversations before life forces them upon us. And with an additional two million people projected to be living with cancer by 2045, our collective responsibilities - personal, professional, legal and regulatory - have never been clearer. We cannot sleepwalk into this future; preparation must start now.

“It remains a privilege to work with Macmillan on research that has the potential to make such a meaningful difference. By combining our expertise with their extraordinary insight, we can help more people feel informed, supported and financially prepared for whatever the future brings.”

Key statistics

• The number of people living with cancer in the UK is projected to increase by 58% over the next 20 years³
• In 2045, we estimate there will be 5.4 million people living with cancer, compared with 3.4 million in 2025 – an increase of 2 million people⁴
• This means that by 2045, around 7-8% of the population in each UK nation will be living with cancer, compared with around 5% today⁵
• The increases in the numbers of people living with cancer will be partly driven by population growth and ageing, and due to people living longer after diagnosis, but are also linked to increases in the likelihood of being diagnosed with cancer over time for certain age groups and types of cancer⁶
• Our projections show the four most prevalent types of cancer in the UK in 2045 will be⁷:
  • Female breast cancer (1.4 million women and people assigned female at birth)
  • Prostate cancer (1.1 million men and people assigned male at birth)
  • Colorectal cancer (580,000 people)
  • Melanoma (558,000 people)
• While lung cancer is still one of the most common types of cancer in the UK in terms of new diagnoses each year, it has a substantially lower survival rate than these other four cancer types, which means it accounts for a lower proportion of total cancer prevalence⁸
• The number of people living with cancer in each of the four UK nations in 2045 is projected to be as follows⁹:
  • England: 4.6 million people
  • Scotland: 448,000 people
  • Wales: 236,000 people
  • Northern Ireland: 146,000 people

Download full press release (PDF, 200KB)

Notes to editors

About Macmillan Cancer Support

Macmillan Cancer Support has spent more than 100 years helping people living with cancer. We know that cancer can disrupt your whole life. And it can be made worse simply because of who you are and where you live. But we’re here to change that.

The number of people diagnosed with cancer is growing, and every one of them needs the best support to meettheir unique needs. That's why we'll do whatever it takes to help everyone living with cancer across the UK get the support they need right now and transform cancer care for everyone who will be diagnosed in the future.

About Scottish Widows

Founded in 1815, Scottish Widows is part of Lloyds Banking Group and is one of the UK’s longest established financial services providers. With £280bn in assets under administration, Scottish Widows’ award-winning product range includes workplace and individual pensions, investments, annuities, life cover, critical illness and income protection.

More than 1.75 million Scottish Widows customers are digitally registered, with over 750,000 app users. Scottish Widows has an industry leading Trustpilot score of 4.6 stars. The Scottish Widows Platform supports over 170,000 advised clients and provides investment for financial advisers.

About the report

The full report ‘Living with and beyond cancer in 2045: see the future, support the people’, informed by Macmillan Cancer Support, powered by Scottish Widows, is available from 25 February 2026 at: https://www.scottishwidows.co.uk/living-with-cancer-report

Spokesperson availability

Contact media@macmillan.org.uk for up-to-date information on potential interviews with Richard Simcock, Chief Medical Officer for Macmillan Cancer Support and our other clinical experts, or for potential interviews with storytellers relevant to the key data. 

Additional insight

Other research by Macmillan shows that four in five people with cancer in the UK (83%) experience a financial impact from their cancer diagnosis, which reaches more than £1,000 a month on average for those affected.¹⁰

References

¹ Prevalence projections are based on analysis of publicly available data on cancer incidence, survival and population statistics published by official UK bodies. All data used were aggregated and non-identifiable. The modelling approach combines observed trends in cancer incidence and survival with population projections to estimate how many people may be living with cancer up to 2045. Figures for 2025 are also projected estimates.

Data sources include:

• Cancer Registrations for England (1971–2021; NHS England, NHS Digital, Public Health England and the Office for National Statistics)
• Cancer Incidence for Scotland (1998–2022; Public Health Scotland)
• Cancer Incidence for Wales (1992–2022; Public Health Wales)
• Cancer Incidence for Northern Ireland (1993–2022; Queen’s University Belfast) 
• Cancer Survival for England (2001–2020; NHS England, NHS Digital, Public Health England and the Office for National Statistics) 
• Cancer Survival for England and Wales (1986–2001; British Journal of Cancer, 2008)
• Cancer Survival for Scotland (1993–2017; Public Health Scotland)
• Cancer Prevalence for England (2021; National Disease Registration Service)
• Cancer Prevalence for Scotland (2019–2022; Public Health Scotland)
• Population estimates for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (1970 - 2024; Office for National Statistics)
• Population projections for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (2022- based; Office for National Statistics)
• General population mortality statistics (1980–2020; Office for National Statistics)
• Projected background mortality (Scottish Widows actuarial modelling)

Further information describing the methodology can be found at https://www.scottishwidows.co.uk/living-with-cancer-report

² As per ref 1

³ As per ref 1

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⁶ As per ref 1

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¹⁰ Current estimate from Macmillan Cancer Support as of May 2024. Data from Macmillan Cancer Support/YouGov survey from January 2024 has been used to cross-check and validate an inflation-based update of a previous figure derived from a Macmillan Cancer Support/Truth survey from January 2020. Further validation of this analysis is needed, however even the most conservative estimate from this analysis so far results in an updated monthly cost of over £1,000.

Sources:

1) Macmillan Cancer Support/Truth survey of 1,329 adults who have received a cancer diagnosis. Fieldwork was undertaken between 13th January and 7th February 2020.

The survey was carried out online. Sample is weighted to represent national population of people who have received a cancer diagnosis in terms of demographics (age, gender, region) and cancer type/time since diagnosis using prevalence data. This research found that four in five people with cancer (83%) experience a financial impact, which for those affected reaches £891 a month on average in addition to their usual outgoings. The £891 figure is a weighted average, taking into account both loss of income and increased costs.

2) Bank of England Inflation Calculator

3) Macmillan Cancer Support/YouGov survey of 2,099 adults in the UK who have had a cancer diagnosis. Fieldwork was undertaken between 2nd January and 22nd January 2024. The survey was carried out online.

The figures have been weighted and are representative of people living with cancer in the UK (aged 18+). Survey asked respondents for details of their monthly income (after tax) before their cancer diagnosis and at the peak of the financial impact of their diagnosis to estimate loss of income, and for details of any monthly costs related to travelling to hospital or other medical appointments related to their diagnosis, and any monthly costs of personal parking for hospital or other medical appointments, to estimate two key drivers of increased costs.