Advisers predict increased returns despite sustained market volatility until 2030

7 January 2026

Almost nine out of 10 advisers (88%) expect a rise in returns over the next decade, with an upward trend in equities, despite the majority (62%) predicting an increase in geopolitical disruption.  

This continued growth in market volatility has been highlighted by the latest Investor Confidence Barometer from Scottish Widows, which surveyed 200 UK-based financial advisers and paraplanners on market pressures, macroeconomic predictions and client demands to provide a holistic view on adviser sentiment.

Volatility expected to increase

More than half (54%) of advisers anticipate market volatility to increase over the next five years. Although this figure is high, the overall sentiment is down from 2024, when nearly three quarters (74%) expected to see turbulent markets.   

Despite believing that equities will rise over the next decade, advisers are more bearish when asked how returns will hold up versus historic averages – 29% expect them to trend lower, and 15% higher. Respondents are split on bond returns, with a fifth (20%) expecting them to trend higher and over a quarter (27%) lower. Two-thirds (67%) of advisers expect inflation to be sticky, staying at the same level or increasing through to 2030 but well-over a half (59%) anticipate lower interest rates in the same time period.

Tariffs, recession and conflict drive adviser fears - but not AI

Advisers see geopolitical conflict (40%) as the biggest threat to equity markets in the next five years, closely followed by trade barriers (29%). It’s firms managing more than £500 AUM where this flips and trades barriers become the  priority concern (41%).  

The fear of a sustained downturn or recession keeps one in 10 (11%) advisers worrying and despite growing market concentration, just 8% see a valuation bubble as the greatest threat. 

Jenny Davidson, Intermediary Wealth Director at Scottish Widows, said: “Advisers anticipate a challenging run to 2030. Heightened international tensions, the potential of further trade tariffs and persistently sticky inflation are causing unease across markets. Advisers face a delicate balance of keeping their existing clients’ financial plans on track while navigating a shifting and challenging business environment.  

“Stability is key – both for advisers and their clients – particularly in periods of sustained uncertainty. That means having the right tools and support in place to help advisers respond to market pressures, adapt to change and maintain confidence in the plans they set for clients. In an environment like this, consistency and reliability become just as important as performance – helping advisers keep clients focused on their long-term goals.”

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Notes

Methodology

Research in Finance surveyed 200 financial advisers based in the UK. This survey was carried out between 21st July – 7th August 2025

About the Investor Confidence Barometer

Since 2022, Scottish Widows’ Investor Confidence Barometer has provided a unique snapshot of how financial advisers, paraplanners, advised investors and non-advised investors are feeling about today's emerging industry issues.

About Scottish Widows

Founded in 1815, Scottish Widows is part of Lloyds Banking Group, the UK’s largest digital bank and financial services group. With more than £232bn assets under administration and more than six million customers, Scottish Widows’ award-winning product range includes workplace and individual pensions, annuities, life cover, critical illness and income protection, as well as savings and investment products.

More than two million customers access Scottish Widows products and services through the Lloyds Bank and Scottish Widows apps, in addition to accessing directly through independent financial advisers. The Scottish Widows Platform is trusted by more than 18,000 advisers and 5,400 advice firms, which manage the pensions and investments of almost 166,000 clients.