Good COP, bad COP?

Fresh from attending COP30 in Belém, Brazil, our Head of Responsible Investment, Eva Cairns, shares her thoughts on the outcomes of the global climate conference. 

The outcomes of COPs send the policy signals that shape investment risks and opportunities. A clear signal helps create a more certain and stable policy environment around climate change, underpinning long-term investment pathways and climate targets for investors, sectors and businesses. 

When assessing the final outcome text from COP30, there was widespread disappointment that it did not include a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, despite this being supported by over 80 countries. But it’s important to understand that the negotiated text requires consensus across all parties and will inevitably be lower in ambition than many countries would like. If we look beyond the final text, we can see a lot of positive progress, action and opportunity for investors.  
 

Boosting ambition and action  

It’s clear that the multilateral COP process is still pushing ambition and action to higher levels than would’ve been the case without it. According to Climate Action Tracker, before the 2015 Paris Agreement the world was on a warming trajectory of around 3.6°C, compared to the current trajectory of around 2.6°C after a decade of implemented policies and progress. The implementation of energy and methane pledges made at COP28 in Dubai would push this down even further to a ‘Paris-aligned’ trajectory of 1.7°C.¹  

This underpins the importance of delivering on what existing commitments. This was indeed a key objective of the COP30 Presidency who wanted to focus on accelerating implementation action rather than a long list of new, shiny promises – that’s why this COP was rather aptly referred to as the ‘implementation COP’. 

So, let’s look at how the outcomes deliver on expectations: 

1. Raised ambition – updated national climate action plans and targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), were due this year, but only 64 countries had submitted updates by the end of September 2025. By the end of COP30, this number had nearly doubled to over 120.  

The most up to date UNFCCC NDC Synthesis Report published on 11 November estimates that implementation of the reported NDCs (109 at that time) would see a 12% reduction in global emissions by 2035 compared to 2019 levels². It further commented on the increased ‘quality, credibility and economic breadth’ of the new NDCs, noting a ‘new era of climate action and ambition’³. 

2. Climate finance – there was strong recognition that the majority of finance needs to come from the private sector. That includes US$1trn of the US$1.3trn global climate finance goal to be delivered through the ‘Baku to Belém roadmap’. Financial institutions were recognised as critical to implementing the COP30 outcomes, and there were many debates on transition finance, insurance and incentives to mobilise private finance and stimulate investment.   

COP30 also saw the first ever Asset Owner Summit. Focused on climate solutions for emerging markets and developing economies, as well as hard to abate sectors, it produced a set of recommendations and a commitment to ongoing discussions at future COPs. The COP Presidency pronounced that these recommendations would be instrumental in turning the Baku to Belém roadmap into ‘a unifying vehicle to mobilise the blended, public, and private capital required to meet global climate goals’.⁴ 

3. Credible implementation plans – before COP, we hoped to see progress across three key themes: 

Deforestation – One successful outcome of COP30 was the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), which aims to raise US$125bn on finance for tropical forest protection globally, of which $100bn should come from private finance. Already US$6.5bn of finance has been committed to this. The requested roadmap to halt deforestation didn’t appear in the final text, although the COP30 president did commit to take action to develop this. This perhaps recognises the inextricable links between nature and climate. 

These links are one of the reasons for the focus on nature within our responsible investment approach, prioritising the sustainable management of natural resources. We are tacking this in three ways: by identifying nature-related risks and opportunities across our portfolio so that we can target our stewardship activity; by considering ways to incorporate nature-related metrics into our investment process, and by reviewing opportunities in nature-based solutions. 

Carbon pricing – development of the international carbon market agreed at COP29 remains ongoing. A six-month extension for carbon offset projects to transition to the new mechanism was agreed, suggesting some forward momentum on these plans. The EU’s proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, requiring importers to pay for the carbon intensity of goods entering the bloc, created heated debate and means this issue is very much live. The final text highlighted that ‘unilateral trade measures should not discriminate’ based on concerns around global trading implications raised by some countries.  

Just transition – with the voices of indigenous peoples ringing loudly at COP30, this was an important objective. It means supporting the move to a more sustainable economy without leaving people behind. It’s something we strongly believe in, having published our own paper on it back in 2022. It is integrated into our Responsible Investment proposition, focusing on enabling a real-world transition that’s inclusive, and forms an important strand of our Scottish Widows Transition Plan (PDF, 2MB). 

The just transition mechanism, approved by the Parties, aims to enable ‘equitable, inclusive just transitions’⁵ through work programmes, knowledge-sharing and international cooperation. COP30 also saw the launch of the Global Initiative on Jobs and Skills for the New Economy. It’s first flagship report saw publication of an action agenda to support nations and industries as part of their transition pathways.⁶ 

4. Adaptation – with the previous adaptation finance goal set to expire, there was considerable expectation surrounding this issue. The adoption of the Belém package included a commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035, with a spotlight on the need for developed countries to support those still developing. Work was also underway to finalise a series of indicators to monitor progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation. 
 

What does it mean for investors? 

The key message is that climate action is recognised as crucial for sustainable growth, resilience and improving people’s lives today and in the future. Climate action is here to stay. It offers growth opportunities and helps build resilience, making it a financially material fact that should be incorporated into investment strategies. 

The COP30 outcome reaffirmed the commitment to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. But it also revealed global geopolitical divides on the pace and scale of climate action. Investors, therefore, need to consider country specific incentives and barriers in such a divided environment.  

For the first time at COP, the importance of information integrity was prioritised, based on concerns that misleading information erodes public trust and inhibits action. The Declaration on Information Integrity on Climate Change will establish ‘shared international commitments to address climate disinformation and promote accurate, evidence-based information on climate issues.’⁷ It notes that the best available science is provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For investors, therefore, this should be the anchor for ambition and action. 
 

Final thoughts

While the final text may have left some disappointed, we need to look beyond a text that requires consensus from all parties and focus on the progress and action we have seen since the Paris Agreement. One important outcome is the launch of a Global Implementation Accelerator, paving the way for the creation of implementation roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels and halt deforestation ahead of the next COP. 

For me, the COP mechanism shows that thousands of representatives from nearly all countries and sectors are willing to get together to drive climate action. Investors on the ground in Belém showed that they are ready and eager to be part of the solution. 

Collaboration, understanding different global perspectives, and immersing yourself in discussions linked to real-world outcomes are hugely beneficial. It provided me with the opportunity to influence and bring to life the approach we laid out in our own transition plan (PDF, 2MB), and return recharged to continue to drive our approach forward. 

References:

¹‘Three key near-term actions could bend the warming curve, bringing projected warming below 2˚C’, Climate Action Tracker, 19 November 2025. https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/cop30-briefing-energy-methane-goals/ 

²‘Update to NDC Synthesis Report shows the emissions curve is being bent downwards – but urgent acceleration still needed’, United Nations Climate Change, 11 November 2025. Update to NDC Synthesis Report shows the emissions curve is being bent downwards – but urgent acceleration still needed | UNFCCC 

³‘The Direction of Travel Improving Every Year, but we Need to Urgently Pick up the Pace: UN Climate Change Executive Secretary on 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions Synthesis Report’, United Nations Climate Change, 28 October 2025 (updated 10 November 2025). The Direction of Travel Improving Every Year, but we Need to Urgently Pick up the Pace: UN Climate Change Executive Secretary on 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions Synthesis Report | UNFCCC

⁴‘COP 30 Evening Summary – November 15’, COP30 Brasil Amazonia, Belém 2025, 15 November 2025. https://cop30.br/en/news-about-cop30/cop30-evening-summary-november-15

⁵COP30 approves Belém package, COP30 Brasil Amazonia, Belém 2025, 22 November 2025. COP30 approves Belém Package 

⁶‘Jobs and Skills for the New Economy - An Action Agenda for a People-Centered Climate Transition’, International Climate Initiative, November 2025. https://www.international-climate-initiative.com/PUBLICATION2227-1 

⁷‘Countries seal landmark declaration at COP30 –marking first time information integrity is prioritized at UN Climate Conference’, United Nations Climate Change, 12 November 2025. Countries seal landmark declaration at COP30—marking first time information integrity is prioritized at UN Climate Conference | UNFCCC